Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
